It Looks Like It's Happening - Let Your Servant Depart In Peace

Of course, polls of the last few days have shown Huckabee to be within the margin of error of Mitt Romney’s lead in Iowa: first Wednesday’s CBS/New York Times pool with 27% for Romney to 21% for Huckabee, then Thursday’s American Research Group poll showing Romney – 26% and Huckabee - 24%. It’s two different polls and polls vary. But, the trend is consistent with tat of the last three months, including the accelerating pace of change. It means more notice on conventional media and on political web sites, including a quickly scheduled appearance Thursday night on FOX’s Hannity & Colmes, which will continue to increase the buzz and the movement.

We’ve been hearing that the level of commitment to favored candidates has been soft for months. As Huckabee shows his viability, the soft top of Romney and Thompson’s support should tumble to Huckabee which would feed itself. The only thing the move will tread through is an inevitable barrage of attacks from opponents, including Romney who has tens of millions of dollars vested in his lead. And old political opponents will be dug up to tell horror stories about Huckabee’s past.

The great news is that Mike Huckabee isn’t worried. He has nothing to hide. He will just continue to face the questions and leave it to the people to judge and for God to control. The touchiest thing is for Romney to calculate how to plant doubts without overstepping and being caught in an obvious and outrageous deception or becoming Mr. Negative, either of which of course would only make things worse for him with a faster fall. I’d rather be in Huckabee’s shoes, for sure. He has the message and the truth, and Romney has LOTS of money. That’s where we’ve been for 4 or 5 months. Result? About a twenty point increase in Romney has burned many millions in advertising to stand still, at best.

I’ve been keeping and tweaking predictions since June. I picked Romney and Huckabee’s 1,2 finish in the Aug. Ames, Iowa Straw Poll and almost picked Romney’s numbers dead on (32% while he finished with 31.5%) and missed Huckabee’s by 2 percentage points.

I’ve been doing the same since, and have projected Huckabee winning for a couple of weeks, now. It’s going to be an interesting holiday season with all the feathers flying. But, I’ve been praying for months and haven’t been so thankful since I got married and my kids were born!

By the way, today's Rasmussen national tracking poll has Huckabee tied for 2nd.

We had a Houston Huckabee MeetUp, Thursday evening. No big surprises there: just a bunch of people who are struck by an unprecedentedly promising prospect for America, and just kinda fired up about it and talking about what we can do. The MeetUp organizer picked me up as I no longer drive. As I told him, I’m 50 years old now, and have paid close attention to society, the world, and politics since JFK was assassinated when I was 6. I went to a Nixon rally in 1968. But I haven’t ridden with a winner through the primaries since Reagan in 1980, whom I had lost with against Ford in 1776. I think it would be fair enough to win twice in your life. I was excited in 1980, but this sentimental ol’ dude has way more emotion wrapped up in this one. It almost seems like after this victory I’d feel like Simeon, as my father always quoted from The King James Version when something good happened:

Luke 2:29 (King James Version)

29Lord, now lettest thou thy servant depart in peace, according to thy word:

Now THAT, was a bigger deal!

Huckabee Continues To Gain In Iowa, Dick Morris Sees "The Last Right-Wing Survivor"

I'm re-posting this, because I forgot to put labels on it.Thursday, October 18, 2007

Huckabee Continues To Gain In Iowa, Dick Morris Sees "The Last Right-Wing Survivor"

A new Rasmussen poll (the organization that was most accurate in the 2004 cycle) shows Mike Huckabee having passed Giuliani and McCain and in a statistical tie with Thompson’s 19%, with 18%, for second in Iowa. Here is the report . Incidentally, word is that Brownback will mercifully drop out, tomorrow. So you can give Huckabee a few more points. Romney still leads, but has dropped to 25%. So, it looks like we can see Huckabee at about 20%, and that’s just in “polls.” Among those who will actually get out to the caucuses, Huckabee would show higher and Giuliani and McCain would show lower.

Now, Huckabee is showing competitive with Romney in polls!

Remember, before the straw poll in Ames, Huckabee spent less than 5% of what Romney did and bussed in no supporters while Romney bought tickets and bussed hundreds of busses from every county in Iowa. Result? Romney didn’t quite double Huckabee’s second-place showing. It was just plain straight-up retail campaigning and personal appeal. And, there’s still over 2¹/₂ months to go before the caucuses! At the same pace of progress in what Huckabee has called “a marathon,” Huckabee can win!

At RealClearPolitics.com Dick Morris has posted an article about Huckabeer as “The Last Right Wing Survivor.”

Morris cites Romney’s “convenient” flip-flop-flip on abortion, with which social conservatives were not satisfied. Consequently, Fred Thompson was seduced and entered as the conservative savior. But close scrutiny made his personal record look less than appealing, along with his less than vigorous and inspiring campaign style and schedule.

Supporters of the media “frontrunners” like Romney protested Morris’ interference and questioning of their candidates and of course, dismissed “nice-guy” Huckabee as a “lightweight,” as “having no chance,” or in aping published shallow/misguided criticisms about taxes and immigration. It is true that Romney is an accomplished businessman (he’s injected millions of his own dollars into his campaign), if that is your only standard for gravitas. Before entering politics, Huckabee was unapologetically a pastor, calling it perfect preparation because he dealt personally with every social pathology, better bring him to empathize with ordinary Americans. And, he was elected as Arkansas’ Lieutenant Governor in 1993, became Governor in 1996, and was twice reelected. He served Arkansas for 13¹/₂ years, 10¹/₂ as governor.

As he always is, Morris is upfront that he once acted as a political consultant to Huckabee in Arkansas. But as for hawking Huckabee, Morris is only looking at social conservatives politically. He is not near one himself, having politically advised clients of both major parties, and being an enthusiastic Giuliani supporter. His positive comments about Huckabee are like most everyone else’s: that he is honest, sincere, and bright. I’ve been watching policy and politics and presidents for over 35 years, and watching Mike Huckabee intensely, this year. And, the idea that Mike Huckabee is not as or more familiar with and responsible to principle as have been most all of the candidates and elected presidents since I was a boy, is ridiculous!