Saturday, January 5, 2008

Let's Talk Taxes in New Hampshire

Internet polling showed that Governor Huckabee showed strongly in the debate, tonight. Obviously, New Hampshire has changed and is changing since I lived there, over 15 years ago. But, New Hampshire has always been considered an extraordinarily tax-conscious state. As such, I way surprised that there was very little or no time spent in the debate, on the subject of taxes.

Introducing one question, Charles Gibson raised charges that had been made against each of the candidates. Referring to Governor Huckabee, he said that he had been called a tax and spender and was trying to change that perception. With he and most of the other candidates, by the time they spoke, the focus of the topic had shifted. But, I wish Governor Huckabee could have said, with regard to taxes, I make the best possible plea: in the Internet age, we have the unprecedented ability to look directly at the discussion and the record on al of these questions, and I urge you to do just that. If you think that a state raising taxes to renew highways, or to improve education or parks maintenance is not good and legitimate state action, then I may not be the kind of executive you would approve. The only question I have is, “Who is?”

I know that in campaigning this week in NH, Governor Huckabee is doing a lot of discussion of The Fair Tax. I hope there is a strong contingent of Fair Tax advocates working in New Hampshire for these few days, and I hope it can be discussed at tomorrow night’s FOX debate.


Stephen R. Maloney said...

My column today (Sunday)
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Single issue voters are destroying the GOP's chances of winning crucial elections -- including the presidency. That's true whether the single issue is abortion, gay marriage, or immigration. Ironically (sadly?), the single-issue voters are also undermining their chances to win on their issue of choice.

In fact, abortion, gay marriage, and immigration are NOT big issues with most American voters, as we found out once again in almost all-white, politically moderate Iowa. All three of the Democratic candidates hold views the opposite of GOP single-issue voters, including the evangelicals who cast their votes for Mike Huckabee.

Look at it this way: the number of Iowans who participate in the Democratic caucuses totaled an amazing 239,000. That was nearly twice the number in the Republican caucuses.

How big a figure is 239,000? In the 2004 election John Kerry got 157,390 votes (53%), a record for any Democratic presidential candidate. George Bush got 138,074 votes (46%).

In other words, almost 82,000 more Democrats participated in the caucuses than gave Kerry his winning margin. Only about 10,000 more Republicans caucused than voted for the 2004 loser, George W. Bush. Iowa is a "light Blue" state. It's one where Republicans should at least be competitive on a statewide basis. Right now, Republicans are nowhere near being competitive in Iowa.

Look at the Caucus this way: ONE Republican, Mike Huckabee, won by a fairly comfortable margin. However, THREE Democrats -- Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Hillary -- all got MORE Caucus votes than Huckabee. If he'd been running for Democratic votes, he would have finished a failry distant FOURTH.

Of course, many Huckabee supporters -- Larry Perrault being a prominent one -- have announced that if Mike doesn't get the nomination, they will sit out the election. That should make it much easier for either Obama or Hillary Clinton to win the general election.

Generally, Democrats like their choice of (extremely liberal) candidates. Republicans don't like their choice of (mainly conservative) candidates.

If what happens in New Hampshire and South Carolina resembles in any way what occurred in Iowa, Republican candidates -- many of them superb human beings -- are in for a drubbing. Democrats are united, while Republicans are fractured.

Whomever the Democrats select as their nominee for President, bet your money on him -- or her.

Tomorrow's column (on Tuesday) will be about the candidacy of Melissa Hart trying to regain her seat in PA's 4th Congressional District.


Larry said...

Maloney droned:

"Of course, many Huckabee supporters -- Larry Perrault being a prominent one -- have announced that if Mike doesn't get the nomination, they will sit out the election. That should make it much easier for either Obama or Hillary Clinton to win the general election."

Just to clarify: I would support a McCain/Huckabee ticket, or ogbviously a Huckabee/McCain ticket. I don't think there will be a Huckabee/Romney ticket or a Huckabee Giuliani ticket. Thompson possibly. But, I don't know if Thompson wants to be Veep. I can't imagine what magic Thompson might have up his sleeve to win the nomination. He doesn't beat Ron Paul on Tuesday in NH (Giuliani may not, either). Paul polled at about 9 in the last poll, but, the intensity factor could boost him well into the teens. He polled mid-single digits in Iowa. I guessed 8%. He got 10%

Huckabee polls at 11-12% in New Hampshire. No one has Paul's intensity, but Huckabee's could boost him above 15%, which might be third. If both McCain and Huckabee beat Romney in Michigan, I think the Romney party's over.

Then, McCain and Huckabee square off in SC. McCain better have an avalanche of momentum, because he's far behind, there. There's a pro-defense potential McCain contingent in SC, but I also think there's about a 25% ceiling, right now. If he has any momentum, the sky's the limit for Huckabee in SC.

So, after Huckabee won SC, Giuliani has to beat him in Florida. Sure, there are a lot of Yankee transplants in FL, but some are from the Midwest and the state is still half Southern conservative. And, Giuliani has to raise his campaign from the dead.

If Huckabee has beaten McCain before he goes to FL, McCain may have endorsed Huckabee going in and maybe Huckabee will have promised him a post. I would,and Huckabee likes him.

I WOULDN'T, in the long-shot chance that Giuliani can do a standing broad jump from Feb. 5 (I wouldn't even bet on Florida), support a Giuliani/Anyone ticket Well, if Huckabee actually accepted a second spot to Giuliani, I'd take Giuliani's pledge to appoint conservative judges more seriously, which I don't, now. Huckabee would have to choke a commitment out of Giuliani to provide the Southern balance/boost.

I don't think I'm typical. A lot of social conservatives would hold their nose and vote for Giuliani, but many might not do THAT on a cold day. Anyway, they wouldn't turn out big and they wouldn't stuff envelopes and walk blocks and get out the vote. And, I think Giuliani would get waxed by Obama and maybe even Clinton. With her HIGH negatives, a Giuliani nomination would be her best hope. Moneybags Romney would get waxed too, but what flailing we will see if he loses in NH on Tues.

Let's go back to when we were friendly: I would prefer a Huckabee/Sarah Palin ticket and I will be certain the name is there. But, Huckabee might want to look for some northern balance, though Republican pickin's are gettin slim up there.

If I didn't have to bet, I wouldn't. But if I did, I'd say the best chance is a ticket with Huckabee and McCain on it, in some order.

Facilitator said...

Hey Huckabee supporters! Please take a minute to check this post out from the GA Republican. If you live in America and support Mike and the Fair Tax this is for you, especially those in SC. Thanks!

Read the Post Here

Stephen R. Maloney said...

Something all Huckabee supporters need to examine carefully tonight is the raw vote total. Specifically, how many votes does Sen. Obama get as compared to, say, Mike Huckabee? That will establish the "core" voters for each candidate -- and go far toward suggesting how the election will go in November. I suggest that will demonstrate why so many Republican believe Huckabee would be a disastrous choice. Larry has said all along that he's much more interested in making a point than in winning an election. Mike's base, as illustrated by Iowa and (later today) NH is that he is popular with Christian evangelicals. In fact, such evangelicals make up a mere one-third (at most) of Republican voters. Conservative evangelicals make up a negligible percentage of the Democrat party. In other words, Mike's core is about one-sixty of all voters. I'm sure Larry is getting ready to pooh-pooh the NH results. In fact, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats in NH. There are a huge number of Independents, few of whom seem inclined to vote for Mike. Anyone who has no interest in winning against Senator Obama next November many continue to support Mike, but those who would like a victory should choose another candidate -- probably either McCain or Giuliani.

steve maloney

I'll be writing today and tonight about the situation in NH. Be sure to come and visit.

Larry said...

"Something all Huckabee supporters need to examine carefully tonight is the raw vote total. Specifically, how many votes does Sen. Obama get as compared to, say, Mike Huckabee? That will establish the "core" voters for each candidate -- and go far toward suggesting how the election will go in November."


Any of the very limited credibility that you have goes directly out the window when you talk like that. It also suggests that though you consistently look in on and comment on this blog, you haven't read a word I've been saying (which is a consistent indication of your comments). But, I don't think that's the case. It's easier to believe that your intentions are to distort and deceive.

It is true that I believe that truth and the integrity of American principle are considerations prior to calculation of an electoral victory. But, it is also true that I have consistently said, often in response to YOU, that I believe that Huckabee is the BEST candidate for the Republicans in the general election. And, I have also clearly written that both Giuliani and Romney would be swamped, barring a terrorist attack, in the casde of Giuliani. Oddly, like Democrats politically hoping for failure in Iraq, Giuliani could politically hope for a successful terrorist attack.

New Hamshire is in no way representative of the nation. But in fact, I am not preparing to pooh-pooh the yet-to-be-releaserd New Hampshire results. A Huckabee finish in the teens would be encouraging.

And actually, polls show that Huckabee draws NH Independent votes third, behind Obama and McCain. I predict that Huckabee will finish well into the teens. His support does not have Obama intensity. It does not even have Ron Paul intensity, which I think will boost Paul from single-digit NH poll showings to the low teens. But, Huckabee supporters do have more than common intensity, which I think will boost him from 11-12% in the polls, to the mid-to-high teens. I hope he beats Paul and Giuliani to finish third. He will compete in MI and win SC, which he leads in polls by about 20%. Then, he will square off in Florida against Rudy's attempted standing long-jump. I give Rudy 30-35% in FL, which Huckabee will compete with and beat if Houndawg Fred Thompson does us all a favor and leaves the race.