Thursday, October 25, 2007

Huckabee On The Cusp Of Victory. Add To The Momentum, NOW!

From the Huckabee web site: "Our Conservative Choice"

“This morning, three bloggers Justin Taylor (Between Two Worlds), Joe Carter (Evangelical Outpost) and Matthew Anderson (Mere Orthodoxy) jointly endorsed Governor Huckabee. We encourage you to read their endorsement here.”

They comment on Huckabee’s fidelity to the three lines of conservatism: social, fiscal, and defense. Relative to the fiscal issue, they address questions that have been raised by such as The Club For Growth, accounting their opposition to Huckabee entirely to flawed analysis, though acknowledging that the animus may have driven them to misrepresent some of the facts. Myself, especially given the silence about the other less scrupulous conservative candidates, I am inclined to suspect an external political or financial motive on the part of the Club For Growth. (by the way, that is CFG, not “CFC.”

They also cite comments about Huckabee’s character and distinctiveness in popular media, even from non-conservative sources (you will find the same sort of admiration on the web, even among more resolute and less decorous bloggers and commenters). One citation is the recent Newsweek article by Jonathan Alter, who is no conservative or Republican of any stripe. Alter’s article included this line: “…his support for large-scale federal support of art and music programs to improve creativity…” This comment of Alter’s, which sees (and projects upon Huckabee) the support of federal expansion and activism as a positive thing, is the flip-side of conservatives who recoil at the mention of ordinary decency when in any way connected with government officials or campaigns.

Huckabee never said a word about “large scale federal support…” though he would encourage and help facilitate private and local efforts. Huckabee well understands the constitutional constraints and practical limits of federal power. Some criticism from conservative groups seems to be the result of an inculcated and now reflexive fear about certain patterns of language. Though in abstraction from such fears it is strictly common-sense and biblical ethics, calling greed a bad thing or expressing concern for needy or average people as much as for Wall Street and corporate managers, conjures nightmares of liberal government intrusion into the operation of private interests, for some conservatives. As I have said, this is similar to the cringing of an abused dog when one picks up a rolled-up newspaper. I’m pretty confident that few of these jumpy people are more historically or philosophically conservative than I am.

Anyway, Huckabee’s constant climb continues. Fence-sitting “he can’t win” paralysis is teetering and I believe many notable endorsements are on the doorstep. In fact, the progress is at or past the point where the so-called “frontrunners” will be hearing footsteps. I would expect Giuliani, McCain, and maybe Thompson if her can’t make some magic happen soon (and I see no sign of it) to begin to and ultimately assertively discount the importance of the Iowa Caucuses, just as they have discounted other forums that posed the risk of being outshone.

But Romney can’t do that. He has banked everything on winning Iowa and hopefully New Hampshire, and still leads those states in recent polls, though by diminishing margins. And, when I say banked, I mean B-A-N-K-E-D – Romney has spent nearly 50 million dollars on this campaign. So, what is he going to do? If he has so much effort and resources invested, do you think he’s going to give up? – a rhetorical question. And, he can’t discount the importance of Iowa.

So, the only remaining avenue is to ATTACK! And the attack will make other “conservative attacks like The Club For Growth’s look like a tea party. And this will highlight the incongruity of Romney’s statements only a few years ago in Massachusetts. But, he has no choice. This could come at any time. In fact, I won’t be surprised to see the beginning after I post this writing and return to the web.

What does that say to us? Same ol’ story. SEND MONEY to the Huckabee campaign: it costs money to get your message out, and it costs money to respond and disarm attacks. And, give WHATEVER you can, whether $10, the $2300 maximum, or anything in-between. Remember, there are tens of thousands of potential ten dollar donors (hundreds of thousands of dollars) for every twenty-three hundred dollar donor. Give SOMETHING, NOW! Make a donation to the Huckabee campaign.

Incidentally, even the financial momentum is REAL! The campaign set a goal of $200,00o raised online in 15 days. Well past it, they yesterday raised the goal to $450, 000, which they reached, last night. This morning they raised the online target alone, to last quarter’s TOTAL of just over one million dollars. This afternoon, they are ¾ there, and at this rate will hit the target TONIGHT! And, with six days to go! That will be one million in 25 days and HALF OF IT IN ONE DAY!

That kind of momentum will WORK, and end the “no money” line. With momentum AND money, even if I put aside my convictions like others have, there’s no safer boat to be in. I’ve been tweaking my predictions with the ongoing changes in the campaign. Today, I finally fear that we might peal too early. Outside of a successful attack, Huckabee will WIN Iowa. Surely, there’s someone with the Romney campaign watching what’s happening. The Huckabee campaign needs to don its PR flak jacket.

43 comments:

Stephen R. Maloney said...

I think Rich Lowry has been the first one to put his finger on the question of: "What's Wrong with the Huckabee Campaign?" Everybody seems to like him but few seem inclined to vote for him. Here's what Rich said, and I'd be interested in responses from Mikeophiles:

Huck? Aw, Be Real.
Says Rich Lowry in The New York Post:

Huckabee is in that golden campaign space once occupied by Pat Buchanan in 1992 and 1996 and by John McCain in 2000 - dark-horse candidates unencumbered by expectations who can afford to act on gut political instincts and enjoy themselves in the process. [...]

But for all his eloquence, what Huckabee lacks, fundamentally, is a message. Unlike past long-shot crusaders like Buchanan, there is no new direction in which he wants to take the party. He has different mood music than his rivals - acknowledging middle-class anxieties and sounding nationalistic notes - but these are more rhetorical riffs than part of an integrated worldview.

"I don't want to see our food come from China, our oil come from Saudi Arabia and our manufacturing come from Europe and Asia," he said in his Washington speech. There is so much foolishness in that one sentence it is hard to unpack: We import a mere 3.3 percent of our food from China; we're not going to be independent of foreign oil in 10 years as Huckabee promises; and foreign manufactured goods, by keeping prices low, are a boon to the middle class that Huckabee champions.

Lines like this are just part of Huckabee's act - an act not in the sense of being inauthentic, but in the sense of being a rhetorical roadshow. Pundits now say that Huckabee has made the GOP contest a "five man" race. This is overkill. Without organization, money or an agenda, Huckabee is very unlikely to win the nomination. [...]

But he could be running for vice president. He's a natural fit for Rudy Giulani. If Huckabee wins an upset in Iowa, he will deal a potentially mortal blow to Giuliani competitor Mitt Romney. If Giuliani becomes the nominee, he will have to shore up the social-conservative base. A vice-presidential nominee with impeccable social-conservative credentials will be a must, and one like Huckabee - an incredibly talented communicator with crossover appeal to the media - will be a plus.

As for Huckabee's presidential campaign, it's a blast. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Do you think there's a remote possibility that the two campaigns have talked and that Huckabee has agreed to go all-out for the social-conservative vote?

steve maloney (quoting Rich Lowry and, in the last paragraph, a blogger)

Stephen R. Maloney said...

Recently, Larry Perrault had a column about how Rudy couldn't win the nomination unless the evangelicals split their vote and ignored the candidacy of Larry's favorite candidate, etc. In fact, evangelicals, like all other groups, have different views on who they'd like to see as the nominee. There's abundant evidence that many evangelicals prefer the candidacy of Rudy, although they may disagree with him on this or that. Here's a hot-off-the wires poll, and it shows that Larry's assumptions were wrong.

"Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll 10-25-07 (pdf link) GOP Nomination (trends since Oct. 10 poll) Rudy Giuliani 31% (+2) Fred Thompson 17% (+1) John McCain 12% (even) Mitt Romney 7% (-4) Mike Huckabee 5% (even) Duncan Hunter 3% (+2) Tom Tancredo 2% (even) Ron Paul 1% (-1) Second Choice for Republican Nominee Rudy Giuliani 22% John McCain 20% Fred Thompson 14% Mitt Romney 11% Mike Huckabee 4% Ron Paul 3% Duncan Hunter 3% Tom Tancredo 2% If the United States were suddenly in an extremely serious crisis, which presidential candidate would you want to be president at that moment? (Republicans Only) Rudy Giuliani 39% John McCain 12% Fred Thompson 11% Mitt Romney 3% Mike Huckabee 2% Ron Paul 1% Among Independents (Only included Republican candidates) John McCain 17% Rudy Giuliani 12% Fred Thompson 3% Mike Huckabee 2% Ron Paul 1% Mitt Romney 0% Polling was conducted by telephone October 23-24, 2007, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted. LV = likely voters Republicans n=303, ±6 percentage points."

steve maloney

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