Frank Lutz’s Focus Group at Drake Debate Shows Huckabee Big Winner http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0807/5257.html
We should still see trends, this week. But, it's looking pretty good. The Washington Post/ABC News telephone poll prior to the debate Had Romney on top at 26%, Giuliani 2nd at 14%, Unannouced Fred Thompson at 13%, Huckabee and McCain tied at 8%.
After the debate and Luntz's focus group showing only 1 who wanted Huckabee to win, before the debate. But, after the debate, 14 chose Huckabee, folloowed by 10 for Romney, who picked up 1. Everyone else fell, Giuliani from 8 to 3 and Fred Thompson from 5 to 1. How are these guys going to gain, this week. I expect someone to come head-hunting with an attack on Huckabee. And it seems to me that the only way Fred Thompson gets a bump is to announce, this week. At this point, I'm picking Huckabee 2nd and not terribly far behind Romney. Giuliani may be in a contest with Brownback and Tommy Thompson, who said he might not be able to continue without a 1st or 2nd finish. He's been working Iowa for a few months, but does he know something that NO ONE else does?
Now, if there are dropouts after the Staw Poll, where will that support go? More later...
Sunday, August 5, 2007
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3 comments:
One of the big questions about Mike is this: Can he win the general election (presumably against a Clinton-Richardon ticket)? If so, how? Mike is very strong among evangelicals. What is he going to do to build on that support -- especially among women professionals, Blacks, Hispanics, and young people? I know that Mike won 48% of the Black vote in Arkansas, but can he do well outside Arkansas among minorities? What I'm asking here is if Mike has a ceiling, which may be the case, which would work against him in the general election. Frankly, Republicans run "right" in the primary and centrist in the general. I don't know if Mike is likely to do that. (Giuliani is already running a centrist campaign and, along with Romney, is one of two candidates taking on the Democrats.) I mean this to be a devil's advocate argument.
steve
Continuing as the devil's advocate: how is Mike going to sell his pro-life position to people, especially women, who disagree with him and believe the choice whether to have an aborition is theirs, not his, and not the government's. This question is basically a serious one about what life is, and I don't see most of the Republican candidates going beyond the "I'm pro-life" position. Brownback has emphasized the "whole-life" position, which is a good start. I don't think the "I'm conservative, and she (Hillary) is not is a winning strategy." In the U.S. we lost the Schiavo debate -- I was in favor of not starving the woman -- because people believed it was the family's (i.e., the husband's) decision, not the government's. This development amazed many conservatives, including this one. It's important to note that Giuliani is running a general election strategy, while the others are running the classic primary campaign. I want the candidates to go beyond "primary rhetoric" and say, "I'm pro-life because (followed by a thoughtful discussion)." I'm not hearing that yet. I know, I'm a pest.
steve
I'm going to address these matters in a new post. It should be there, soon.
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