Thursday, September 27, 2007

This Is Really Important Stuff About The Presidential Election Process

I have what I think are some important comments and important links: First, be sure to watch the issues videos of Mike Huckabee posted at:

There are now over 200 bloggers on the Mike Huckabee Blogroll. I poke through them when I can, making a point to stay reasonably abreast of some. But, a few are blogs I try to peek in on every day. Mike Huckabee 2008 , is the original Huckabee blogger who cranked up before all of us were aboard, even Mike Huckabee himself. MA For Huckabee is a great information resource from Mitt Romneyland and has also posted many current Huckabee videos and the text of a fine presentation of Mike Huckabee to a recent Cape Cod Round Up by a young Harvard Business School student. Kevin Tracy has innovative material and personal comments, and just put up a funny video about the “frontrunners” skipping tomorrow night’s debate. And One Mom is a very active thinker and able writer, some of whose recent posts are linked below.

Tonight is the PBS debate of Republican Presidential candidates, moderated by Tavis Smiley targeted at a minority audience, at 9PM ET, 8 CT. One blogger has posted, Michael Steele Lambasts "Front-Runners" for Ducking Thursday's Debate . Michael Steele is the black former MD Lieutenant Governor and Senate Candidate and now the Chairman of GOPAC. And, the ducking “front-runners” are Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, and McCain.

After saying that he had worked to set this up, noting that Republicans can’t afford to ignore minority voters, that we have just celebrated 50 years since the desegregation of Central High School in Little Rock UNDER A REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT (Eisenhower), and scolding the “frontrunners” for skipping the debate (as they have skipped other forums) Steele says,

“Attendees at the fundraiser were shocked and dismayed to learn about the "front-runners" skipping this debate. They asked who was participating. When Huckabee's name came up, Steele noted, "he won 45% of the black vote in his last election as Governor." A Virginia legislator interjected "he's a good man."

Okay then, people, if you're willing to pony up $250 or more in support of local elections to see Michael Steele, and you're disgusted by the behavior of the current GOP Presidential "front-runners," let's put the same kind of money up for the one man who can score a landslide against Hillary Clinton by capturing nearly half the minority vote, in addition to earning the support of solid conservatives and middle class workers of all races!

(Jim Geraghty over at NRO's Campaign Spot keeps positing excuses for this self-destructive behavior. I think the real reason the "front-runners" have skipped the last two debates is because every time they show up for a debate, Huckabee wipes the floor with them. If they don't show, most people don't watch, so Huckabee gets noticed less, and they get shown up less. If they keep debating Huckabee, he has everything to gain and they have everything to lose, so they simply duck and focus on their precious fundraisers.)”

J.C. Watts, the black former Republican Congressman has also questioned the wisdom of these people skipping the debate. Well, is calling it “stupid” questioning the wisdom? There is a link to Watts’ comments among a string of recent posts by Kerry at One Mom , which include 1) a letter from Mike Huckabee about the primacy of ideas in selecting a nominee which gives his, 2) appeals for Gary Bauer to get off his call for everyone but the media-celebrity four to drop out, 3) a letter from Southern Baptist President Frank Page that acknowledges Huckabee’s progress and growing recognition, which follows 4) complaints from Kerry and other bloggers about Richard Land’s endorsement of Fred Thomson after saying that he likes Huckabee, but “he can’t beat Hillary…” (Which I’m sure was well-intended but, though he certainly isn’t, was spoken from the ignorance of having one’s head submerged in the media fishbowl, rather than in what is actually happening on the campaign trail. Land is the longtime president of the Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics and Religious Liberties council.

That brings up what I wanted to discuss along with again (for the 3rd time) recommending Dr. Laurence White - This Election Cannot Be About Electability , which discusses the same issue:

This whole idea that gets discussed as “electability,” “viability,” or whether someone can or cannot win, is one that needs to die the death it deserves as soon as possible. It’s a grand delusion that tells the voters what to think about elections that are determined BY THE VOTERS! Why can’t we just let the candidates themselves decide whether they are in or out, and THE VOTERS decide who they do and don’t like???? WHAT A NOVEL IDEA!

Has anyone noticed that when Mike Huckabee gets in front of voters that they like him, and when he is in debates and straw polls, he’s a BIG WINNER? He was just asked why he seems to do well in straw polls, but trails “the frontrunners” in national polling? National polls reflect name-recognition among people who get information from media. In Ames, IA, he was 2nd to Romney who bought tickets, bussed in supporters, and spent at least 20 times as much money, not even counting all of the media ads. In a number of straw polls in South Carolina (most recently

Mike Wins South Carolina Straw Poll at Huckabee08 ,

he’s been winning for months. In the analyses after all the debates, he’s recognized as the strongest communicator. And, in the before and after votes of the delegates of 40 socially conservative organizations at the Values Voters debate, Huckabee won strongly before, and nearly doubled that total afterward, winning 63% of the delegates!

Yet, presumptuous “experts” want to tell us who “has a chance.” Why do they think that? Well, they think it must be the case because after all, that’s what they say on TV! If we could just remove television from the mix, Huckabee would unquestionably be top-tier if not running away with the race, except where no one had seen the candidates. And, I always remind people that these people who anoint media celebrities, are not known to be friendly to conservatism. Conservatives let non-conservatives tell them who their top candidates are.

People! Grow up! We now have all the access to al the information you want, in any form: text, audio, video… We don’t need supposed experts. Won’t it be nice when the voters tell the experts who the winner will be?


Stephen R. Maloney said...

I'll be writing today and tomorrow about Dr. Laurence White and Larry Perrault under the topic of "evangelical extremism." The poll that came out this morning from WMUR (Manchester, NH TV)has the following result: Giuliani, 25%, Romney 24%, Thompson 13%. Romney has a shaky lead in Iowa, but a NH win is essential for him if his campaign is to continue. Huckabee's problem (aside from money) in New Hampshire is that only 10% of the Republican-inclined voters identify themselves as evangelical Christians. (In Iowa, the number is nearly 40%). It's not clear who will win Iowa, but it looks as if Giuliani has a very good chance to win NH, SC, and FL. That would basically bring the Republican phase of the primary season to a conclusion, leading to a "New York, New York" battle in the general election.


Larry Perrault said...


I don't see what there is left to talk about. You not only can't be budged in the direction of holding out higher principles, you can't even be politely invited to exercise some ordinary courtesy.

But, I have been wanting to say that I fully expect that if Giuliani is nominated, he will lose the general election, and YOU will blame people like me. I will blame the fools who nominated him instead of a more principled and clear-headed communicator, in the first place.

Stephen R. Maloney said...

Is there any poll or analysis anywhere that suggests Mike can get 50% of the minority vote? Is there any poll or analysis that suggests he can get 10% of the Black vote? Mike did well in Arkansas (although not 50%) in Arkansas, but I haven't noticed any groundswell for him anywhere else. In order to get people's votes you have to give themselves. I know, that sounds crass, but for nothing in life you don't get something. I do agree that Mike's effort to reach out for Black votes is commendable, but it is part of a long-term (a generation?) process to get the Black vote for Republicans. If Mikes were announce the kind of people he'd like to have as V-P, and that list were to include Michael Steele and (perhaps) J. C. Watts, he would do wonders for his campaign. Would he lose part of the evangelical group -- the only one he currently has? I think he would. Eight-six of the public says they'd vote for a qualified Black man and 92% say they would vote for a qualified woman. I wonder which woman that 92% has in mind? :-) But the 14% that wouldn't vote for a Black man seem concentrated in areas (the Deep South) where Mike's support is strongest. Ken Blackwell (Ohio) and Lynn Swann (PA) are both Black conservatives who ran for Governor. They can only wish that they'd gotten anything like 50% of the Black votes in their races. The 50% for Mike is a fantasy number, period.


Stephen R. Maloney said...

You tend to wildly over-rate the role of the media in determining who gets the nomination, who gets the money, and who ultimately gets elected. In the early polls, granted, name recognition plays a big role. But there have been many debates, straw polls, and hoopla to this point, and most people who will actually vote in primaries know who the candidates are. It's the job of the candidates to ensure that their names get recognized and their positions known. It's not the media's responsibility to determine the ONE candidate Larry Perrault thinks is qualified (Larry having such high standards and all) and then somehow hype him. One recent polls of Republican voters with various religious practices showed Mike with 7% of the vote of those who went to church weekly. Rudy had the highest percentage of such people (about 25%). Mike has made his pitch, and the vast majority of Republicans have rejected it. That should not be an occasion for wailing and gnashing of teeth. Jimmy Carter won the nomination without being any sort of "darling of the media." Much the same was true of Clinton. Howard Dean was the media favorite of a short -- and called a shoe-in by Newsweek and Time -- but somehow the nomination went to somebody else. Larry's problem, like that of his mentor, Laurence White, who thinks he's living in Nazi Germany, is that they have no understanding of (or respect for) a free society. In free socities, people disagree, and they really shouldn't ascribe their minority position to living in a socially and morally depraved country. In general, I like America. Larry and Laurence don't, but I don't see them leaving.

Mike is a good guy (usually) but he never established a foundation for a winning candidacy.