Friday, November 16, 2007

It Looks Like It's Happening - Let Your Servant Depart In Peace

Of course, polls of the last few days have shown Huckabee to be within the margin of error of Mitt Romney’s lead in Iowa: first Wednesday’s CBS/New York Times pool with 27% for Romney to 21% for Huckabee, then Thursday’s American Research Group poll showing Romney – 26% and Huckabee - 24%. It’s two different polls and polls vary. But, the trend is consistent with tat of the last three months, including the accelerating pace of change. It means more notice on conventional media and on political web sites, including a quickly scheduled appearance Thursday night on FOX’s Hannity & Colmes, which will continue to increase the buzz and the movement.

We’ve been hearing that the level of commitment to favored candidates has been soft for months. As Huckabee shows his viability, the soft top of Romney and Thompson’s support should tumble to Huckabee which would feed itself. The only thing the move will tread through is an inevitable barrage of attacks from opponents, including Romney who has tens of millions of dollars vested in his lead. And old political opponents will be dug up to tell horror stories about Huckabee’s past.

The great news is that Mike Huckabee isn’t worried. He has nothing to hide. He will just continue to face the questions and leave it to the people to judge and for God to control. The touchiest thing is for Romney to calculate how to plant doubts without overstepping and being caught in an obvious and outrageous deception or becoming Mr. Negative, either of which of course would only make things worse for him with a faster fall. I’d rather be in Huckabee’s shoes, for sure. He has the message and the truth, and Romney has LOTS of money. That’s where we’ve been for 4 or 5 months. Result? About a twenty point increase in Romney has burned many millions in advertising to stand still, at best.

I’ve been keeping and tweaking predictions since June. I picked Romney and Huckabee’s 1,2 finish in the Aug. Ames, Iowa Straw Poll and almost picked Romney’s numbers dead on (32% while he finished with 31.5%) and missed Huckabee’s by 2 percentage points.

I’ve been doing the same since, and have projected Huckabee winning for a couple of weeks, now. It’s going to be an interesting holiday season with all the feathers flying. But, I’ve been praying for months and haven’t been so thankful since I got married and my kids were born!

By the way, today's Rasmussen national tracking poll has Huckabee tied for 2nd.

We had a Houston Huckabee MeetUp, Thursday evening. No big surprises there: just a bunch of people who are struck by an unprecedentedly promising prospect for America, and just kinda fired up about it and talking about what we can do. The MeetUp organizer picked me up as I no longer drive. As I told him, I’m 50 years old now, and have paid close attention to society, the world, and politics since JFK was assassinated when I was 6. I went to a Nixon rally in 1968. But I haven’t ridden with a winner through the primaries since Reagan in 1980, whom I had lost with against Ford in 1776. I think it would be fair enough to win twice in your life. I was excited in 1980, but this sentimental ol’ dude has way more emotion wrapped up in this one. It almost seems like after this victory I’d feel like Simeon, as my father always quoted from The King James Version when something good happened:

Luke 2:29 (King James Version)

29Lord, now lettest thou thy servant depart in peace, according to thy word:

Now THAT, was a bigger deal!


Stephen R. Maloney said...

Some major issues remain that could derail the Huckabee campaign.

First, many of Huckabee's evangelical supporters have a "Mike or Nobody" approach to the election. Of course, they expect the 70% of Republicans who are NOT evangelicals to support Mike if he gets the nomination (unlikely, but possible). How does Mike stand on this issue? Will he support the Republican nominee if it is not him? And what does he say to his Mike-or-nobody followers? I'm sure he will be asked these questions.

Second, Mike has a major problem with some of his supporters. One gentleman who fits in that category is Larry's favorite preacher, Dr. Laurence White, who published a guest post on Mike's blog. Dr. White has written essays and given speeches in which he compared America to the Third Reich, Nazi Germany. White's intemperate statements (which show he knows nothing about either Germany or America) could come back to haunt Mike Huckabee. He should repudiate Dr. White rather quickly if he hopes to be a serious candidate for the nomination. If he agrees in any sense with Dr. White (in "God and Caesar") that America shares characteristics with Nazi Germany, then he should end his candidacy. He should at least explain why he reprinted an article by a man with such bizarre views.

"Sin in haste, repent at leisure."

Note: I am not against the extremist wing of the evangelical movement starting a third party. As many people know, I've concluded with some sadness that the Republican Party has to get back to a position where it attracts groups other than evangelicals -- what one observer called "normal people." The 5% or so of American voters who have this country confused with a theocracy have a right to assert their views, although I fear many of them would not grant that right to others.


Larry Perrault said...

Okay, this is just a default dig, right? I have seen White speak at 5 or 6 political and pro-life events and been a delegate at two state Republican convetions where he was in my caucus. I also have been to his church 4 or 5 times. Most of this was in the 90's, and I probably have known hundreds of preachers in my lifetime, beginning with my father. I don't particularly favor "preachers." So, my "favorite preacher" is an outright ridiculous thing to talk about, particularly if you propose to designate who that is from your valley of unbounded ignorance. I think your social judgment has some critical holes in it. But, you often talk as though you are getting words from someone who can't even spell as well as you can. I can handle your misjudgments, but some of this crap is just tiresome.

All of that said, I know enough of Laurence White's scholarship to know that he could talk you under the table in both German and American history. I've told you this before, but you plainly have a noggin of solid granite. I know about argument and debate and confusing the logic and the subjects of an analogy is the most sophomoric of reasoning mistakes. For the last time, and I don't want to hear it again or I hopefully won't respond at all, rather than honestly describe your reaoning disposition:

White does not compare America with Nazism, else I would dismiss him. He compares the passivity of American CHRISTIANS with that of German Christians in the 30's. Perhaps it is beyond you to absorb and assimilate that, in which case you should avoid intelligent conversation.

1) Mike Huckabee has said he doesn't think there should be a third=party, and of course, he has declined to respond to questions about who or what he would be on a ticket with.

I have no aspiration to be what the one you refer to described as "normal." In order to be such I think would require the amputation of something I particularly prize.