Monday, June 4, 2007

Tonight's NH Republican Debate, the Thompson Factor, & Plausible Hopes

I’ve looked all over the web, including at CNN and WMUR, which are sponsoring and televising the event, and I’ve only found a few references to the time of the Republican presidential candidates’ debate in New Hampshire, this evening. And none of them offered any specifics, relative to time zones. I saw 7:00, and I saw 8:00, so I’m thinking 8 Eastern, 7 Central. In the Central time zone, I will make sure I’m watching at 6, to be certain.

The polls are the same ol’ same ol’: Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and maybe Thompson, some of them only mentioning these three or four. Frankly, Thomson should be included as suspect, despite the media proposing him as a “true conservative” alternative. Whatever they say and whatever he feels, and whatever he genuinely believes and is reflected in his record, conservatives should understand this. FredThompson was a big advocate and supporter for McCain-Feingold. Anyone who doesn’t understand that this is a blatant defiance of First Amendment free speech, is intellectually unqualified to be the chief executive charged with defending The Constitution: especially for what is ostensibly the conservative party in American politics.

These early states are supposed to reflect retail politicking more than media profiles. And all three of the “top tier” candidates are suspect among conservatives, and rightly so. So, why do the polls reflect and focus on this media-induced counter-conservative bias?

Who, among the other 7 announced candidates is a more qualified conservative? Very simply, all of them: even Ron Paul, whose originalist disposition parks him away from the rest of the current Republican field on foreign policy. Relative to Paul, I’m not too concerned about the Republican field. I’m concerned about responsibility in terms of security and morality.

But, the “top-tier” and a third (Thompson) will never get my vote, now or in the future. I don’t pick philosophical plumbers for social surgery assignments.

But, after Thompson’s half-pregnant announcement (he’ll explore and raise money and maybe announce, next month), a great deal of discussion has been over how he might affect the field. Who might he help and hurt? Frankly, I’m unqualified to predict how the public will behave, and demonstrably so. Too often, most people are unstudied, manipulable, and philosophically incoherent. I can’t predict them, and I don’t care to try to make a science of trying.

But, I can tell you what seem like plausible hopes. Speculation has been over how it affects about how Thompson nught affect the (other infidel) three; Giuliani, McCain, and Romney, and it’s been said that its even worse news for the rest of the hopeful conservative alternatives. But does this seem like a plausible hope?:

I think those three lead the polls because the clatter in media causes people to suppose that they have the best chance of winning the general election against the dreaded Democrats. I consider that a lot of Thompson’s support would be of a similar sort. Conservatives support one among Rudy McRomney because they believe they have te best chance of beating a Democrat. I don’t think that’s true. In fact, if nominated, I think any of the others would have a better chancer But, let’s assume the belief and motivation among Republicans is as I say. If the “winnability” factor (I think due to media noise) is the main issue, then conservatives will drop from those three to a supposed “conservative” whom the media has suggested as a serious consideration. The top three drop and Thomson picks up that support, putting them all at 15-20%, approximately (Romney show lower in national, but higher in early state polls)

Support for the other 7 is based on conviction, not media name-identity. So, their solid support is less changeable and larger relative to the 4 splitting the celebrity contest. If one is around or above 10%, they will be more relevant compared to the others, and that effect will increase in future polls and primaries. As I’ve said, I think the best prospects for a “stronger-than-expected showing are Tommy Thomson and Mike Huckabee. Both are affable state executives. Huckabee is smart, articulate, and principled. Thompson is innovative, plainly more conservative than the media celebrities (Romney’s metamorphosis repels more than appeals to me), and has basically camped in Iowa for months and will until August’s straw poll.

Most commentators say that Thompson would draw most from Romney, who is positioning himself with the base. Romney has also been strong in early state polls, so maybe this would put him with the 4-pack. I could only hope that this or anything else would hurt Giuliani and McCain, too. If I wouldn’t vote for a 1st Amendment heretic, I surely wouldn’t vote for someone who doesn’t understand the necessary American respect of human life established since The Declaration Of Independence. Those two issues and others, remove Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson from my consideration. And, as I said , I’m not dancing to the Romney Pied Piper show.

The big issues for Hunter and Tancredo aren’t especially big in Iowa and New Hampshire, or even real big in South Carolina. Ron Paul has a following to show early, especially in NH, but I can’t see that following growing to an ultimate victory Jim Gilmore is a serious adult: almost the flip-side of a rock star. I’d be happy to see America support an adult. But, how likely is that?

So, Fred Thomson obviously won’t be in tomorrow’s debate. And it seems like he has a lot of work to do if he plans to compete in the Iowa straw poll in August. But, let’s suppose that he’s in and joins Giuliani, McCain, and Romney coming out of that straw poll, with Huckabee and Thompson showing and hanging in. Now, there are six. Except if Thomson gets a fire started, I don’t see any potential for anyone of the top four rising. I don’t know what ultimately happens with Fred ThomsonMcCain has to kick something new in. He isn’t raising money fast, and his numbers have only sagged. As strong on security, Giuliani can only gain by McCain falling. But I don’t think Giuliani can win the nomination. At least McCain is nominally pro-life. Unfortunately, Romney has a lot of money, and that Pied Piper flute, suit, and hair. So, I think he’s in for a long time.

The sooner McCain swoons, the sooner Huckabee and/or either or both Thompsons (one will survive) have a chance to be seen square up against Romney As the field shrinks, Giulian’s topped out life-indifferent Republican support shrinks in relation. I hope Huckabee survives and it comes down to he and Romney. Hey, if Huckabee can’t flush out Romney and distinguish himself between them, he can’t ask for a better chance. He’d get to sell roast beef against whatever custom presentation Romney served up. If Romney wins, that’s what the Republicans want. Theyd face a Democrat without me, which I’m sure they’d never stop crying about. J

Larry

2 comments:

Vincent Harris said...

Larry-

The debate is tomorrow.

Send me an e-mail if you get a chance.

vincent.harris@explorehuckabee.com

Larry Perrault said...

>Larry-

>The debate is tomorrow.

You're right. I got ahead of myself. Got onlin and my brain lost a day.